ANDEAN ECUADOR: Reversal of fortunes

ANDEAN ECUADOR: Reversal of fortunes

Ecuador Economy & Policy

When Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa began his final year in office in February, he faced one of the toughest challenges since the start of his presidency in 2007.  As the price of crude oil, Ecuador’s top export, tumbled in 2015, the government has been scrambling to make up for lost revenue. The economy grew less than 1%, well short of the original 4% forecast. The government is maintaining its 1% growth forecast this year, but the market consensus has Ecuador shrinking in line with the region. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects GDP in Latin America and the Caribbean will decline 0.3% in 2016.  Ecuador’s budget for 2016 is just shy of $30 billion, about $4 billion lower than

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