Ecuador Default Risk Ratchets Up

Ecuador Default Risk Ratchets Up

Corporate & Sovereign Strategy

With oil plunging and 2009 debt maturities looming, Ecuador bond prices suggest an increasing likelihood of default on some $3.7bn in debt next year. Ecuador’s 2012, 2015 and 2030 global bonds were bid around 35, 40, and 28, respectively Tuesday, according to traders. Both ability and willingness to pay are diminishing, as the sovereign is expected to release soon results of a study that suggests the external debt is illegitimate. “The probability of default is high. The market is already pricin

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