Mexico to cut rates after FOMC: analysts
The Bank of Mexico’s interest rate cut earlier this month is likely the beginning of an easing cycle, analysts say after Wednesday’s US Federal Open Markets Committee meeting
The US Federal Reserve's decision to continue quantitative
easing at its current pace makes it more likely that the Bank
of Mexico will cut rates at its next meeting, market analysts
Banxico surprised markets by cutting interest rates by 25
basis points at its meeting earlier this month. Rates in Mexico
are at a historic low of 3.75%.
The chance of another rate cut at the October meeting "rose
meaningfully" after another market surprise - the Fed's
decision on Wednesday not to taper its $85 billion monthly QE
program - Alberto Ramos, head of Latin America economics at
Goldman Sachs, said in a note published Friday.
"We believe the domestic growth-inflation balance of risks
supports another 25 basis point rate cut at the October 25
meeting, but we also acknowledge that global drivers and their
potential impact on the Mexican peso and capital flows adds an
extra layer of complexity and hawkish considerations to the
decision on the optimal current monetary policy stance."
Minutes of Banxico's September meeting showed that two of
the five directors did not support the rate cut. One opposed
the decision on the grounds that it was better to assess the
market reaction after the Fed's meeting.
"The post FOMC rally in emerging markets assets and the
appreciation of the peso to the USD should have eased
significantly the concerns of the dovish dissenting director
that saw merit in cutting but wanted to wait to observe the
market reaction to the FOMC meeting, and must also have
dispelled some of the fears and concerns of the most hawkish
dissenting director," said Ramos.
Analysts at Barclays took a similar view.
"After this decision was made, the very dovish statement
allowed us to believe that this could be the beginning of an
easing cycle and that another rate cut will be implemented in
October 25," said Barclays analysts in a note released on
Friday. "The minutes support this view."
Bank of Mexico governor Agustín Carstens told
LatinFinance ahead of the rate cut that
the country's strong fundamentals would help it withstand
volatility in global markets.
Elsewhere, the surprise move from the US Federal Reserve has
jolted Latin America's capital markets into action.
Colombia issued Thursday a new benchmark bond, its first
since a $1.6 billion sale in January.
Brazilian development bank BNDES also joined in with a $2.5
billion deal including three and 10-year tranches. Both were
increased in size from initial expectations. Pemex sold both
global peso and
dollar and bond yields dropped, while Latin markets soared on
the news. Stock indices and currencies jumped across the
region, where asset prices have suffered since May when the Fed
first hinted at ending QE earlier.
numbers were not strong enough for the Fed to begin unwinding
the stimulus. And now, many don't see the developed markets
able to exit stimulus for some time.
banks, including the US Federal Reserve, will be hard pressed
to tighten policy in the near term,
Pimco CEO Mohamed El Erian
expect emerging markets will be buoyed by the news at least
until next month's Federal Open Markets Committee meeting, when
the central bank will again consider tapering its bond buying