For commodity exports, high prices with high volatility are the
new norm. Prices have declined by more than 10% from their
recent peak in February, but are almost twice as high as 10
years ago, and 70% higher than in 2008. Rising terms of trade
have led to growing prosperity, to an extent not observed in
Parting Shot: Reversal of fortune
The benefits of the commodity boom are set to fade – even if prices don’t fall sharply, warns Claudio Loser. Latin America’s blessing could soon become its curse
Policymakers in Latin America are nervous because of higher
inflation, increased public sector deficits, and external
current account gaps. But fundamentally they feel comfortable
because of the resiliency shown in recent years, and because of
a benign world outlook. As the rise in commodity prices slows
and the volatility of these prices increases in the years to
come, can this prosperity be maintained, or will it end?
This issue is even more relevant if prices trend down, as
has happened with some commodities already. Unfortunately, it
will not be easy. A reversal of prices would have a major
impact on disposable income, and thus on growth through the
normal channels into the domestic economy.
A slowdown in the advanced world and the larger emerging
economies would cause a shock. The past may repeat itself with
periods of growth and prosperity followed by times of crisis
and reform. The last 200 years bear witness to this
It has been customary to view the impact of commodity prices
on developing economies in terms of their impact on GDP growth.
In fact, it is crucial also to capture the increase in
disposable income directly generated by higher export prices,
captured by Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The effect of these
gains is significant: Latin America's increase in GDI, not
directly reflected in GDP numbers, has been 14% of GDP since
2000. That is even higher in other regions.
In addition to this effect, the increase in real output
generated by higher prices - the multiplier effect of exports -
is also relevant. The combined effect of terms of trade changes
on GDI and the GDP multiplier is roughly 1.7% of GDP a year in
Latin America between 2000 and 2012. This is one third of
growth in GDI of 4.5%. In Africa and in the Middle East, it
accounts for about half of GDI growth.
On the basis of these estimates, if terms of trade were
simply to stabilize at the current high levels, the multiplier
effect would disappear, and there would be no additional gains
in GDI in excess of GDP. As a consequence, GDP (and GDI) growth
rates in Latin America would tend to fall to a rather mediocre
trend growth rate of about 2% to 2.5%, from 3.7% (and 4.6%
growth in GDI) in the past decade.
A steep but not unusual decline in terms of trade of 10%
would result in a one-time decline in income of 5% in Latin
America, with grave consequences for public finances and the
external accounts. Growth rates could then converge to the
lower path of growth just mentioned.
These numbers are not cast in stone but are indicative of
the fragility of the outlook for the region, even though
countries like Mexico are less exposed to this danger.
The last several years of commodity-led prosperity have
resulted in a degree of complacency in Latin America that is
misplaced. The impact of lower terms of trade can be
staggering. Prices will continue to fluctuate, and may even
show a secular downward trend.
It is essential for policymakers to prepare. Fiscal
discipline, including structural rules like in Chile, a
competitive private sector, better education, and a
well-protected financial system are of the essence to survive.
Otherwise, volatility will take over, with lower economic
growth and increased poverty, reversing a course that many
wrongly assumed would continue indefinitely.
Claudio Loser is president of Centennial Group Latin
America, advisor to the Emerging Markets Forum, and senior
fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue. From 1994 to 2002 he was
director of the Western Hemisphere at the International