Fears of a credit bubble in Brazil may be overblown. Loan growth remains robust but it is slowing as central bank measures kick in.
by Vincent Bevins
The debate over whether or not Brazil is suffering from a
credit bubble has intensified over the last year amid dire
warnings that the economy is heading for a drubbing if the
problem is not addressed in time. But analysts within and
outside Brazil contacted by LatinFinance say that such fears
are largely overblown, or at least are best described in other
A credit contraction will have some negative fallout but the
country is unlikely to see the dire scenarios envisioned by
some doomsayers making comparisons with the US. Those warning
about a credit bubble have focused on the argument that debt
service burden in Brazil as a percentage of disposable income
has already exceeded levels seen in the US before its financial
crisis started to unfold.
This may be true and indeed loans as a percentage of GDP
have jumped to 46% from 24% just...
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