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The Real Risk in Brazil

Jun 1, 2002

Financial markets are beginning to panic because Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the veteran candidate of the Workers Party, might win Brazil's October presidential elections. In fact, the markets and the Brazilian people face some unhappy choices whoever wins. Let's deal first with "Lula," as the Workers Party (PT) candidate is known. In all the elections he has contested previously, Lula has seen his support climb in the early stages of the campaign but by mid-year, that support typically flags as the field of candidates narrows. Furthermore, the governing PSDB party will soon begin broadcasting more of its political TV programs and it has the right (determined by a formula based on each party's congressional representation) to much more airtime than the PT....

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